Restivo Media

Economic, financial, and capital markets can be seen, understood and experienced in several ways:  Theoretic and/or with respect to historical norms and experiences, general media news and commentary, so-called Wall Street narrowly explained behaviour and also so-called main street or kitchen table economics experiences and opinions of individuals.

Some definitions of words avoided from public perception/information:

Inflation –

Inflation is the decline of purchasing power of a given currency over time. A quantitative estimate of the rate at which the decline in purchasing power occurs can be reflected in the increase of an average price level of a basket of selected goods and services in an economy over some period of time. The rise in prices, which is often expressed as a percentage, means that a unit of currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods. Inflation can be contrasted with deflation, which occurs when the purchasing power of money increases and prices decline. – Inflation Definition (investopedia.com)

Stagflation –

Stagflation is characterized by slow economic growth and relatively high unemployment—or economic stagnation—which is at the same time accompanied by rising prices (i.e., inflation). Stagflation can be alternatively defined as a period of inflation combined with a decline in the gross domestic product (GDP). – Stagflation Definition (investopedia.com)

Recession –

A recession is a macroeconomic term that refers to a significant decline in general economic activity in a designated region. It had been typically recognized as two consecutive quarters of economic decline, as reflected by GDP in conjunction with monthly indicators such as a rise in unemployment. However, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which officially declares recessions, says the two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP are not how it is defined anymore. The NBER defines a recession as a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. – Recession Definition (investopedia.com)

Depression – A depression is a severe and prolonged downturn in economic activity. In economics, a depression is commonly defined as an extreme recession that lasts three or more years or which leads to a decline in real gross domestic product (GDP) of at least 10%. in a given year. Depressions are relatively less frequent than milder recessions, and tend to be accompanied by high unemployment and low inflation. – Depression Definition (investopedia.com)

A little scenario analysis:  Consider the worst economic outcome, from the above definitions, all things otherwise being equal, which they never really are:

Deepening Depression with high, rising Inflation – War, famine, drought, endemic or pandemic plague(s) are prime extraordinary causes, none of which are mutually exclusive, indeed, all can be experienced globally simultaneously, if not directly, then indirectly in global interconnectedness, the so-called Global Economic Order (The so-called social, financial and government evil of many Conspiracy Theories for many decades).

With respect to so-called First World Countries, none of these specific widespread causes obtain, to much relief, yet do some factors increasingly contribute?  Yes.

1. Plagues (i.e. pandemics) such as, Sars-Cov-02, Monkey Pox and Bird Flu (H5N1) are diseases of concern, whatever that means to the average household.  Life going forward will be constantly burdened by increasing severity of infections of increasing numbers of “novel” diseases, not your grandfathers’ diseases, but variations of same if not outright new ones in the face of scientific inadequacy to treat if not cure them.
2. Water shortage due to Climate Change, “hotter summers with colder winters” depleting drinking water reservoirs and forced decreased crop irrigation capacity to alarming levels of inadequacy.  As California for example, becomes a desert, both famine and drought can exist simultaneously.
3. War(s) involving other nations can have an indirect deleterious effect on other nations.  In a global threat of tactical nuclear engagement(s) among nuclear capable nations, whose number can be increased merely through the theft of one or several atomic bombs and/or use of own delivery systems, from missiles to jets. Internet gives mush theory about bomb fabrication.  Stealing an atomic bomb (fission bomb) for example, assures it will work with no manufacturing costs involved.  Merely the threat of war, the fear of escalation of engagement with a nuclear power, can contribute to economic depression and prolong, if not exacerbate, conventional wars where present.

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